Peter Gregory Obi, the Labour Party’s presidential candidate, has been ranked as the most popular candidate among the key contenders for the 2023 presidential election in a recent poll. reported that the Kwakol Research Institute conducted the poll.

The survey found that more than 50% of respondents, including women, the unemployed, civil workers, members of the private sector, and students, particularly those enrolled in tertiary institutions, thought the Labour Party’s presidential candidate was the best option.

Unlike most polls, Kwakol gathered most of its responses from rural dwellers. “It is important to note that, unlike the majority of the polls in Nigeria, we polled more registered voters in rural Nigeria than registered voters in semi-urban Nigeria and urban Nigeria, respectively,” it stated.

The research organization also considered a number of other aspects before drawing its findings, such as the issue of income classification, educational background, employment status, and sex.

In all, respondents claimed they would vote for the Labour Party in 52.80 percent of cases, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 18.9 percent of cases, the All Progressives Congress in 15.6 percent of cases, and the New Nigeria Peoples Party in 10.4 percent of cases (NNPP).

It is important to note that respondents to the survey came from a variety of socioeconomic backgrounds and the six geographic zones. According to the poll’s distribution, 45 percent of respondents live in rural areas, while 28 percent and 27 percent of respondents, respectively, live in semi-urban and metropolitan areas.

A further breakdown revealed that the agency’s estimates of the numerical strength of the Northwest and Southwest geopolitical zones, which came to 25.27 percent and 19 percent, respectively, and the Southsouth and Southeast, which came to 13.44 percent and 12.13 percent, agreed with widely cited census data.

Young people between the ages of 18 and 69 were more accepting of Obi, with 56% of those between the ages of 35 and 49 who had valid Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) stating they would support him in the election on February 25.

Over 70% of respondents who work in the private sector, regardless of their occupational background, stated they would vote for Obi and his Labour Party. Civil servants closely followed this performance, with 66.9% of respondents saying they would support him for president in the election on Saturday of next week. Of the students, 53.4% stated they would support him in the election. 52.3 percent of responders who were unemployed said they will vote for him.

Another intriguing finding from the Kwakol poll was that more than 67 percent of those polled who made more than N200,000 stated they would vote for Obi. 
The 64.5 percent of respondents who stated they would vote for Obi and made between N101,000 and N200,000 closely mirrored this finding.
More female respondents than the combined percentages of the APC, PDP, and NNPP—over 53 percent—said they would vote for Obi, according to the poll. 
Male respondents stated they would vote for the Obi in 52.61 percent of cases, despite small gender discrepancy.
Another criterion utilized in the survey showed that, in the upcoming presidential election, a resounding 64.41 percent of respondents with only a tertiary education said they would support Obi and his Labour Party. The least surprise statistic was that 30% of respondents without any formal education said they would support Obi and the Labour Party in the presidential election taking place next week.

Kwakol offered two scenarios that could deviate from the poll findings. First, it was acknowledged that Obi wasn’t absolutely certain of winning the presidential election the next Saturday, even though the sample size of 1,000 respondents wasn’t sufficiently representative. You might wonder why.

Elections in Nigeria have always been “characterized by electoral violence, terror violence, sectionalist violence, and voter intimidation,” it stated.

For the first scenario, it was predicted that in the event of violent attacks in the North Central geopolitical zone, voter turnout would decline significantly. “A situation that would have an impact on the number of votes available for the Labour Party and the NNPP,” it said. This leaves the two major political parties to slug it out.

In the north-east geopolitical region, “if an outburst of violence by non-state actors occurs in the northwest, this will significantly reduce voter turnout, and the only parties to benefit from traditional voting patterns will be the PDP and the APC, whose strongholds are in the geopolitical zone.”

For the Northwest, in the event of a breakout of violence, “all the frontline political parties will be adversely affected, but the APC will benefit from the 2019 voting patterns despite a significantly lower voter turnout.”

While Kwakol stated that “we do not expect to see an outburst of violence from the militants in the South-South geopolitical zone, but we suspect that hired political thuggery could be a recurring theme during the election, particularly in River and Delta,” it was feared that concerns from the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) militant wing—the Eastern Security Network (ESN)—could reduce the numerical chance of Obi. We believe that this is most likely a result of particular interests for the required 25 votes in each state’s election. We also believe that pro-LP strongholds in the area may be targeted in an effort to increase voter apprehension and reduce turnout.

Particularly the LP will lament this very certain outcome.
There was claim that the APC would gain in the South West if political thuggery broke out, greatly hurting the chances of the Labour Party.
In essence, it predicted that “if either of the six scenarios below of electoral violence plays out in any of the geopolitical zones, the probable political party to benefit is the APC, most likely due to a repeat of the 2019 voting patterns that were favorable to the party in hindsight.”
“In the eventuality that the presidency has to be decided by a run-off presidential election round between the two parties with the greatest number of votes cast in their respective favor, and if these two parties happen to be the APC and LP, we predict a very close race with the APC as the eventual winner.
“The APC’s incumbency, reliable voting patterns in its strongholds in the northwest and southwest, and the further polarization of the electorate along time-honored ethnoreligious lines in the midst of reeling voter fatigue will be of advantage to the APC,” it stated.
However, Kwakol predicts that even though the PDP will be negatively impacted by the anticipated low voter turnout in the Northwest and even though the Southwest will support the LP instead of the PDP, it will not be enough for the LP in the event of a likely run-off between the PDP and the Labour Party. The proportion of registered voters in the north will be extremely important due to Nigeria’s long-standing voting tendencies along ethnoreligious and sectionalist lines.
In the event of a likely APC-PDP runoff, “the PDP will benefit from a section of the electorate that is disgruntled with the APC’s same-religion candidate pairing, especially in the south-south and southeast.”
“The PDP will also benefit from a section of the LP strongholds in the south-south and the southeast. The APC will maintain its strongholds in the northwest and the southwest albeit with a reeling voter fatigue. This leaves the key battleground geopolitical zones in the context of this run-off pairing to be the northeast and the north-central zones. Thus, we predict that the PDP will just about edge out the APC in this very tight race,” it predicted.
It created another permutation, stating that in the event of a last-minute alliance between “the APC and the NNPP with the NNPP dropping out of the race, we predict that the APC will be able to gain more support from the NNPP stronghold in the north and northeast, and thus, it is likely that the APC will win the election in the first round.”
In its final permutation, Kwakol argued that “if there is a last-minute alliance between the PDP and the NNPP with the NNPP dropping out of the race, we predict that the PDP will be able to gain more support from the NNPP strongholds in the Northwest. However, we cannot conclude if this is enough for the PDP to win the presidential election in the first round.”


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